What is Betfair Predicts?
Betfair Predicts is a prediction market on the Betfair Exchange, where you answer a simple Yes or No question to bet on whether a real-world event will happen. For example, ''Will Arsenal win the Premier League?''
Markets are available across football, politics, culture and general sports.
If you're new to Predicts, you can visit our Getting Started guide for a full introduction.
How do I place a bet?
Choose Yes or No on any market, set your stake and confirm your prediction.
What is the minimum stake?
The minimum stake is £1.
What is Betfair Predicts available on?
Betfair Predicts is available via desktop and mobile browser at predicts.betfair.com.
What is "Percentage Probability"?
The percentage shown on each market reflects the implied probability of that outcome, based on real-time activity. The higher the number, the more likely the market considers that outcome to be.
How can I switch between percentage and decimal odds?
You can switch between percentage and decimal odds using the odds-format toggle in the header.
If you'd like to understand how percentage odds convert to decimal, see the below:
Decimal odds = 1 ÷ percentage (as a decimal)
Why don't the Yes and No percentages add up to 100%?
This is completely normal! Each Yes/No price is set independently by traders in the market, not derived from a single bookmaker's book.
Trading fees, supply and demand imbalances, and market activity mean the totals can land slightly above 100% (an "overround") or slightly below (an "underround").
This is a feature of an open marketplace - prices reflect what people are actually willing to bet right now, rather than a fixed model.
For example: Yes = 63%, No = 44% > total = 107%. This is expected and doesn't affect how your payout is calculated.
Why do prices change?
Prices update in real time based on what people are buying. If more people bet Yes, the Yes percentage rises. The market constantly updates to reflect what participants believe is most likely to happen.
Is commission charged?
Yes, commission is charged on net winnings using the following formula:
- Commission = Net Winnings × Market Base Rate × (100% - Discount Rate)
Do bets count towards My Betfair Rewards
Bets placed on Predicts do contribute towards your My Betfair Rewards. Your Market Base Rate (MBR) and any applicable Discount Rate are linked to your rewards account - please note these are not currently visible within the Predicts site, but will still be applied to your winnings.
To find out more about My Betfair Rewards, see our Help article here.
What are the market rules?
Predicts markets follow standard betting market rules. You can view the specific rules for any market by pressing the 'i' button on the market page.
- Full market rules are also available on our Help & Support pages.
- Please note: combining selections is not available on Predicts.
Can I cash out my bet?
Cash out is available on eligible markets, allowing you to settle your bet before the market closes to lock in a profit or minimise a loss.
- Please note: Partial cash out and auto cash out are not currently available on Predicts.
- To find out more about cash out, see our Help article here.
What is the difference between Yes/No and Back/Lay?
On Predicts, you bet using Yes or No.
If you view your bets in the My Account section, you may see them displayed using Back/Lay terminology instead - these mean the same thing:
Other essentials
To find out more about the terms and conditions for Betfair Predicts, see our Help article here.