Which candidate will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

• This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.
• This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2028 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
• This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress.
• This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2028. If more than one election takes place in 2028, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
• Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2028 for the US Presidential Election 2028, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2028 or beyond.
• If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time.
• Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
• Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
• Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets.
• Additional candidates may be added to this market on request.
• Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market. The only exception is if a candidate dies before they are elected in which case we will partially settle that candidate as a loser.
• If any candidate withdraws for any reason, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.
  
  
  

General Rules -

Political markets are all in, run or not. Candidates who withdraw from standing for posts will be settled as losers.

Results of elections are settled on the official declared result, later legal challenges do not count for settlement purposes.

Leadership Elections -

When betting is offered on Next Party Leaders/Next Prime Minister/ Next President or similar, odds are offered on the basis of "all in, run or not" unless otherwise stated. No stakes will be refunded for reasons of ineligibility, failure to stand, withdrawal, or any other eventuality.

"Temporary" or "caretaker" leaders installed in advance of any scheduled leadership contest or official selection process will not count. The winner of any such election or process will count as the "Next Leader", irrespective.

"Next Prime Minister" will always be settled as whomever takes up the office, even in advance of a party leadership contest. Anyone invited to form a UK government by the Monarch will count as Prime Minister for these purposes.

Other US Politics

Impeachment -
Under Article II Section 4 of the US Constitution if the House of Representatives pass by a majority vote at least one article of impeachment then the President is deemed impeached.

US Presidential State Betting -
The market will be settled on the party which wins the popular vote on the state-wide vote share.

State Primaries / Caucuses -
You're betting on: the winner of the US state primary or caucus as part of the nomination procedure for a party's presidential candidate. Bets will be settled on the candidate who receives the highest number of pledged delegates as declared by the individual state parties immediately after the primary/caucuses. Dead heat rules apply. Subsequent corrections or alterations will not be taken into account.

Party Candidates for Presidential Election -
You're betting on: the official nominee for each party in the next presidential election. Bets will be settled on the official decision made at each party's national convention in the year of the presidential election. Any subsequent withdrawals or overturning of the choice made at convention will be irrelevant for the purposes of this market.

US Congressional Elections Senate/House of Representatives Majority -
A majority of seats requires either party to control more than half of the seats following the elections. Independent or any other party Senators caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.

Voter Turnout -
Voter turnout is defined as the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot.

UK Politics - General Election

Voter Turnout -
Will be settled on UK wide turnout on polling day.

Vote Percentage Betting -
Will apply to percentage of the registered vote which the named party receive in the UK as a whole at the next UK general election.

Majority Betting -
For a party to win an overall majority, they are required to win over half of the UK constituencies contested i.e. if 650 seats are contested, 326 are required for a majority.

The Speaker will not count for any party totals. Any seats won in Northern Ireland will not count for either Labour, Conservatives or Lib Dem party totals. Candidates running under Labour Co-Op or similar affiliations will count for the respective parties.


Constituency Markets -

All markets are for the next General Election, unless otherwise stated.

Other runners may be added at any time as they declare, or on request.

Bets on parties or candidates who do not stand will be losers.

Constituency betting is available as singles only.

Bets placed in advance of any boundary changes implemented will be void.

Post-Election Government Betting -
A coalition is defined as any arrangement which results in representatives of all of the parties named having cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election (and no other parties having cabinet representation).

A minority government is defined as the party named having less than 326 seats, but having all cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election.

A majority government is defined as the party named having over 325 seats and all of the cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election.

Prime Minister after General Election -
This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election.

Most Seats Betting -
In the event of a tie, dead heat rules will apply to any affected markets. Unless specified, the Speaker does not count and Northern Ireland seats do not count.

Postponed/Re-run seats -
Any seat which requires a postponement of the vote to a later date and is not held on general election day, will still count for purposes of seat totals or majority betting.

Irish Politics

Post-Election Government Betting -
A coalition is defined as any arrangement which results in representatives of all of the parties named having cabinet ministers in the first reformed cabinet after the election (and no other parties having cabinet ministers). The coalition selection will be settled as a winner in the market if these conditions are met, this is regardless of the fact that the coalition may operate as a minority government.

Constituency Markets -
All markets are for the next General Election, unless otherwise stated.
Other runners may be added at any time as they declare, or on request.
Bets on parties or candidates who do not stand will be losers.
Constituency betting is available as singles only.
Bets placed in advance of any boundary changes implemented will be void.

Ceann Comhairle -
The Ceann Comhairle, while automatically re-elected, will count towards his/her party's seat total in all relevant General Election markets.

Taoiseach after Next Election -
The market will be settled on the first person appointed by the President upon the nomination of Dail Eireann after the General Election.